3 edition of Further evidence on the link between finance and cyclical fluctuations found in the catalog.
Further evidence on the link between finance and cyclical fluctuations
|Statement||Ali F. Darrat and Mahmoud Haj.|
|Series||Working paper -- 0139|
|LC Classifications||Microfiche 2009/52268 (H)|
|The Physical Object|
|Number of Pages||32|
|LC Control Number||2009321571|
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Ali F. Darrat & Mahmoud Haj, "Further Evidence on the Link Between Finance and Cyclical Fluctuations," Working PapersEconomic Research Forum, revised 12 Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper Download Citation | Further Evidence on the Link Between Finance and Cyclical Fluctuations | This paper explores the possibility that financial market development mitigates cyclical fluctuations.
The concept is useful in that it can help to explain the persistence and amplitude of cyclical fluctuations in a modern economy. Although the financial accelerator seems intuitive--certainly financial and credit conditions tend to be procyclical--nailing down this mechanism empirically has not proven entirely straightforward.
Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. This process mimics two series whose cyclical fluctuations are countercyclical such as output and unemployment for instance.
Indeed, under the null hypothesis of serial correlation common features, there exists a vector δ ′ = (1 1) whose premultiplication gives y Cited by: Production-Based Asset Pricing and the Link Between Stock Returns and Economic Fluctuations John H.
Cochrane The Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at 4 The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment. All in all, while the destabilizing impact of NFA following cyclical shocks is clear-cut for debtors the evidence on the cyclical impact of NFA on creditor countries is not conclusive.
15 Overall, the results imply that the NFA position in debtor countries (both highly-indebted and not) improves the current account balance, contributing to. We further analyse the stability of the steady-state equilibrium and the transitional dynamics toward the equilibrium and show that, depending on conditions, there could be cyclical fluctuations such that the financial structure changes periodically between speculative finance and Ponzi finance.
Economic theory and evidence at the industry, firm, and household levels suggest a number of channels through which financial depth can affect volatility.
Yet, in contrast to the finance-growth literature (Levine et al., ), there is little robust empirical evidence at the aggregate level of a causal link between finance and volatility. "Further evidence on the asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol.
13(2), pages Rothman, Philip, " Further Evidence On The Asymmetric Behavior Of Unemployment Rates Over The Business Cycle," Working PapersC.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York.
Definitions. A seasonal pattern exists when a series is influenced by seasonal factors (e.g., the quarter of the year, the month, or day of the week).
Seasonality is always of a fixed and known period. Hence, seasonal time series are sometimes called periodic time series.
A cyclic pattern exists when data exhibit rises and falls that are not of fixed period. Ramey, G. and Ramey, V. () Cross-country evidence on the link between volatility and growth.
American Economic Rev – Romer, P. (). In this paper, we examine price dynamics, cycles and lead-lag relationships between private and public commercial real estate markets. We utilize wavelet technology to capture both the frequency and the time variations of a time series.
We find that the long-run trend of prices in public commercial real estate markets is steeper than that of private commercial real estate markets.
The results indicate that (1) financial shocks have a significant adverse effect on economic outcomes and that such shocks were an important source of cyclical fluctuations since the mid; (2) uncertainty shocks, especially those implied by uncertainty proxies that do not rely on financial asset prices, are also an important source of.
It’s still too early to tell if the recent dollar weakness is a sign of things to come or a short-term blip on a longer-term uptrend. Either way, it’s worth remembering that everything in the markets is cyclical—from asset class returns to economic growth to long-term currency fluctuations.
This article originally appeared at Fortune. Agriculture drove fluctuations in GDP Between andthe agricultural sector expanded by 41% and GDP rose by 17%. In the next year the agricultural sector contracted by 16% and the economy shrank by 8%. Figure a-e In the year /, the agricultural sector expanded by 41% and GDP rose by 17%.
In the next year the agricultural. My take on this is that, apart for few notable exceptions, the theory is largely silent on the issues of what drives non-cyclical fluctuations, whether there are interesting mechanisms transforming temporary shocks into medium term fluctuations, whether non-cyclical fluctuations are distinct from cyclical fluctuations or not and in what way.
Finance and economics What's wrong with finance. An essay on what economists and financial academics learned, and haven't learned, from the. This study investigates the influence of oil prices on tourism income in countries that heavily relied on crude oil exports from to We found that oil prices and tourism receipts are cointegrated, revealing the existence of their long-run equilibrium relationship.
Another significant finding to emerge from this study is the presence of a unidirectional Granger causality that runs. Blume and Stambaugh 6, K and Reinganum 21 have studied the interaction between the small firm and January effects. Their findings largely redefine the small firm effect as a “losing firm” effect around the turn‐of‐the‐year.” Our own results lend further credence to this view.
For one thing, there is, in fact, no such thing as a typical developing country. The official developing world includes the (sometimes) fast-growing Asian tigers and the poorest nations in Africa. Studies of the relationship between GROWTH and GDP per head in rich and poor countries found no evidence that poorer countries grew faster.
Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more.
In the time since the industrial revolution the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities that are causing global warming and climate.
The book is divided into 14 chapters, each examining a different area of economic policy: Monetary policy, fiscal policy, tax policy, international finance and crises in emerging markets, trade. This belief is supported by a growing body of evidence.
A good example of a meta-study on the relationship between ESG and performance is the paper entitled ‘From the Stockholder to the Stakeholder: How Sustainability Can Drive Financial Outperformance’ by Oxford University and Arabesque Partners. This paper examined more than sources – including academic research.
ships between levels of government and the economic effects of public finance on regions within countries merited special attention. Based on this analysis, the theoretical literature on "fiscal federalism" and given the political will for further economic integration (falling short, however, of monetary union), certain changes in Community expen.
The theory includes portions of all of these academics. Furthermore, this book covers cycles ranging as short as 27 days to ones spanning billions of years.
The evidence comes from a variety of scientific, academic, and business sources - which this book methodically s: 9. The business cycle, also known as the economic cycle or trade cycle, is the downward and upward movement of gross domestic product (GDP) around its long-term growth trend.
The length of a business cycle is the period of time containing a single boom and contraction in sequence. These fluctuations typically involve shifts over time between periods of relatively rapid economic growth (expansions. A time series is a sequence of numerical data points in successive order.
In investing, a time series tracks the movement of the chosen data points over a. Real business-cycle theory (RBC theory) is a class of new classical macroeconomics models in which business-cycle fluctuations to a large extent can be accounted for by real (in contrast to nominal) other leading theories of the business cycle,  RBC theory sees business cycle fluctuations as the efficient response to exogenous changes in the real economic.
"The Business Cycle and Health" published on by Oxford University Press. been cyclical, with both the United States and the U.S.S.R. alternating between periods of assertion and relaxation.
In the first years after the United States hastily demobilized its wartime military forces while pursuing universal, liberal internationalist solutions to problems of security and recovery. US dollar weakness should reinforce the blossoming rally in cyclical stocks.
We share our answers to clients’ top questions about risks and opportunities in global markets. Posted by Talley Léger Investment Strategist Aug. 12, Aug. 12, | 5 min read.
Review of Anastasia Nesvetailova and Ronen Palan, Sabotage: The Hidden Nature of Finance (PublicAffairs Books, ) Big finance is sabotaging the real economy — that’s the central thesis of Anastasia Nesvetailova and Ronen Palan’s new book, Sabotage: The Hidden Nature of from being a few isolated incidents of malpractice, the lying, cheating, and stealing exposed during the.
Simon Gilchrist is a research associate in the NBER's Monetary Economics and Economic Fluctuations and Growth Programs. He is a professor of economics at New York University and the editor of American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.
Prior to arriving at NYU, he was a staff economist with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and a professor of economics at Boston University. Monetary policy is an important instrument for achieving price stability. It brings a proper adjustment between the demand for and supply of money.
An imbalance between the two will be reflected in the price level. A shortage of money supply will retard growth while an excess of it will lead to inflation. The time-series evidence from the United States shows that a cyclical boom created by expansionary monetary policy is associated with improved conditions for the poor in the short run.
The cross-section evidence from a large sample of countries, however, shows that low inflation and stable aggregate demand growth are associated with improved. Free Online Library: Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence. by "Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis Review"; Banking, finance and accounting Business Economic research. Ahmed Bouteska, Some evidence from a principal component approach to measure a new investor sentiment index in the Tunisian stock market, Managerial Finance, /MF, ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print, ().
Background Previous research suggests that the Great Depression led to improvements in public health. However, these studies rely on highly aggregated national data (using fewer than 25 data points) and potentially biased measures of the Great Depression. The authors assess the effects of the Great Depression using city-level estimates of US mortality and an underlying measure of economic.
This paper examines the relation between the fluctuations in the quantity of money and the fluctuations in economic activity; that is. But even accounting for these leads and lags, the relationship between cyclical fluctuations in the S&P and S&P earnings is simply not very strong.
My concern at prese nt is emphatically not simply a concern about the near-term direction of earnings, or any assumption that stocks must closely follow earnings.
Rather, my present concern.Arshanapalli, B. and J. Doukas (), ‘International Stock Market Linkages: Evidence from the Pre-and Post-October Period’, Journal of Banking and Finance, Google Scholar | Crossref.the link between interest differentials and the agency costs of external finance is made precise, and in which changes in the (endogenous) interest rate spread predict future movements in investment and output.
We produce an example within the context of the Euler equation corresponding to firms' intertemporal decisions about investment.